Bitcoin -
Bitcoin gently rose during the month, regained the $20,000 level and currently holds below $25,000. As mentioned previously, July and August could see a pause in price movement similar to what was seen in February and March of 2022 after three months of lower consecutive closes in November 2021 to January 2022.
DAILY TREND: DOWN
The fall in bitcoin’s price paused in July with a modest recovery that held under $25,000. Bitcoin made an intra-month high on 8th July at $22,486 and another high on 21st July at $24,287. Higher lows were set on 13th July and 26th July respectively at $18.892 and $20,719 to give a short-term uptrend.
XBT closed the month-on-month higher at $23,840 with a 26.8% change.
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
US Dollar -
The U.S. Dollar Index ® (USDX) closed the month at 105.78 with a gain of 1.20%, after reaching a fresh two-decade high of 109.14 on the 14th July.
DAILY TREND: UP
INDEX WEIGHTING:
EUR 57.6% | JPY 13.6% | GBP 11.9% | CAD 9.1% | SEK 4.2% | CHF 3.6%
The U.S. Dollar Index ® started July trading bullish as money steadily flowed into the U.S. Dollar after the bearish close to the prior days trading. Even worse than expected June ISM Manufacturing PMI data did not have a major impact on the early market direction. Data released showed manufacturing continued to grow but at a slower pace continuing the year to date downward trend as business activity whilst in expansion territory at 53.0 continued to decline. The data released for June was below market expectations of 54.9 and the prior month’s release of 56.1.
The U.S. Dollar Index ® continued to grind upwards during the day until the market reached a daily resistance area of 105.56 - 104 93 which combined the June high. It was at this point the bears returned and the market began to drop to retake some of the earlier gains. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the first day of July trading at 104.91 with a gain of 0.38%.
4th July trading was steady due to the holiday marking Independence Day in the United States. Whilst the market continued to trade, the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day virtually where it opened at 104.91 with no change.
5th July trading the U.S. Dollar bulls came out in full force as the U.S. Dollar Index ® rallied throughout the day as money moved swiftly into this safe haven. This coincided with the weakness evident in the Euro, which makes up a considerable portion of the U.S. Dollar Index ® weighting (57.6%) dropped to the lowest level against the U.S. Dollar in two-decades as fears continued to grow about a possible recession across Europe mainly due to the energy crisis. The strength of the U.S. Dollar rally took out the previous high that was set in June as the market made a fresh two-decade high to close the day at 106.32 with a gain of 1.34%.
Trading on 6th July was not to disappoint as the U.S. Dollar extended the rally aided by positive ISM Services PMI released for June. Data showed the service sector economic activity registered a reading of 55.3, which exceeded expectations of 54.5, although it still set a new 12-month low and is the lowest reading since May 2020. The 12-month average is at 60.8 showing a consistent growth in the service sector, which according to data published, had expanded for 25 consecutive months.
6th July also saw the release of the FOMC minutes based on the meeting that took place on 14th - 15th June. Whilst there were no surprises in these minutes, it confirmed the Fed’s stance to continue an aggressive approach to interest rates to help curb the effects of inflation that still runs near four-decade highs. The Fed acknowledged the effects these moves may have on the wider economy and that it may lead to a slowing of economic activity but were optimistic of the long-term goals for bringing inflation into line. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed with a gain of 0.55% at 106.90.
Trading on 7th July was more indecisive as the bulls and the bears failed to gain much traction in either direction. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed up at 106.96 with a gain of 0.08%. This was the third consecutive positive close outside of the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands as the market continued to extend its rally.
8th July trading was a rollercoaster as Nonfarm payroll data was released. 372,000 new jobs had been created during June, which was better than expected (268,000 jobs) although a slight drop on the downward revised figure of 384,000 published for May. The past three months have averaged 383,000 new jobs compared to the average over the previous nine months, which came out a little under 529,000 indicating a tightening of the jobs market. After making a fresh 20-year high at 107.62 (values not seen since October 2002) the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed at 106.82 with a loss of 0.01%.
The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the first full week of July trading with a gain of 1.82% at 106.82. The second consecutive positive close after the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the first partial week of July trading up by 1.01%.
11th July trading the U.S. Dollar bulls came out in force as money flowed back into the safe haven driven by speculation of a potential big rate hike mounted, concerns of a further wave of Covid-19 in China and overall weakening global economic growth. The U.S. Dollar Index ® rallied throughout the majority of the day breaking through and closing above the 20-year high made on 8th July. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed at 107.83 with a gain of 1.07%.
12th July trading the U.S. Dollar bulls continued to drive the U.S. Dollar Index ® higher but it eventually met with some resistance when the U.S. Dollar Index ® reached a high of 108.42 and selling pressure came in. This weakness led the U.S. Dollar Index ® to lose earlier gains as the market closed at 107.92 with a loss of 0.08%.
13th July trading the U.S. Dollar bulls drove the market upwards and extended their gains however, the move met resistance as U.S. Dollar Index ® retested the prior day high of 108.42 where an abundance of sellers were present and the market dropped. The latest inflation figures released on 13th July showed CPI data for all items 12-month ending June was another record increase as inflation rose to 9.1%, the largest annual increase since November 1981. The Core inflation rate, which represents all items less food and energy, recorded an increase of 5.9% over the last 12- month period, slowing for a third consecutive month. The US dollar index closed the day down at 107.76 with a loss of 0.25%.
As inflation remains one of the key priorities, to help gauge future inflation expectations ICE Benchmark Administration has launched the ICE U.S. Dollar Information Expectation Index Family. A useful tool to help answer some of the key questions that will affect how the monetary policy will unfold within the coming quarters.
14th of July trading the U.S. Dollar bulls regained control to drive the market higher. The U.S. Dollar Index ® reached a fresh two decade high at 109.14 before pulling back to close the day at 108.41 with a gain of 0.31%.
On 15th July after the previous day’s positive performance, the U.S. Dollar bulls struggled to gain traction and whilst early trading was largely positive any gains were lost as the U.S. trading session began. The morning session had a brief moment of respite as economic data was released. The U.S. Dollar briefly rose as retail sales data published an increase of 1.0% against market expectations of 0.8% and the previous drop in sales, revised upwards to -0.1%. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index information came with some welcomed news as data published above expected figures at 51.1 against expectations of 49.9 and June data at 50. After the market digested the data, ultimately the bears regained control.
Trading throughout the majority of the day was generally bearish and the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day at 107.91 with a loss of 0.49%.
The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the week with an overall gain of 1.15% at 107.91, for a third consecutive higher close.
Monday 18th July early trading the bears drove prices lower until the market tested an area of support which is evident on a daily chart with a range of 107.05 – 106.53 where buyers were waiting. The U.S. Dollar Index ® took a bounce from this area and regained some of the earlier losses however, the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed down for the day at 107.23 with a loss of 0.54%.
Trading on 19th July started slightly positive until the European session where there was little appetite for the safe haven and the U.S. Dollar Index ® traded lower. The U.S. Dollar Index ® retested an area of support that held on the previous day but on this test, there were very few willing buyers compared to the sellers and the U.S. Dollar Index ® broke below this area. The U.S. Dollar Index ® reached a low of 106.25 before it took an upwards bounce off the daily 20 EMA that acted as support to close the day at 106.55 down 0.70%. This was the third consecutive lower close and the U.S. Dollar Index ® over three days had lost 1.74% in value.
20th July the U.S. Dollar Index ® dropped slightly during early trading to retest the daily 20 EMA with the 20 SMA just below and again, buyers stepped in propelling the market upwards. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the trading day positive with a gain of 0.37% at 106.95.
Trading on the 21st of July again proved to be a day where the 20 SMA this time acted as support as the U.S. Dollar Index ® almost reached it before finding buyers that drove prices higher to recover some of the earlier losses. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day down at 106.80 with a loss of 0.16%.
Trading on the 22nd July found the U.S. Dollar Index ® had no clear direction and the market dropped through both of the daily 20 period moving averages which had previously acted as support. The bulls returned when the market reached a small pocket of support evident on a 2-hour chart at 106.08 – 105.85 created a few days earlier. The U.S. Dollar Index ® reached a low of 105.99 and the market rallied to close with a modest gain of 0.09% at 106.62.
The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the week down at 106.62 with a loss of 1.11%, the first losing week of the month.
25th July started with little action during the Asian and European sessions. Once the U.S. session opened the U.S. Dollar Index ® dropped to reach a small pocket of support which had been tested on the previous Friday at 106.08 – 105.85. The U.S. Dollar Index ® started to lift from this area although there was insufficient buying power to drive prices back towards the days open. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day marginally lower at 106.35 with a loss of 0.05%.
Trading on 26th July saw the U.S. Dollar bears return and the U.S. Dollar Index ® traded lower to retest the small pocket of support at 106.08 – 105.85 which held on the previous tests. The bulls were waiting at this level and drove prices higher throughout the remainder of the trading day. This rally just fell short of a small 2-hour pocket of resistance at 107.32–107.49 as sellers stepped into the market. The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day at 107.04 with a gain of 0.69%.
On 27th July, the market hesitated just below the resistance area for the majority of Wednesday trading as the market awaited the Feds interest rate decision. Earlier in the day, data was released for Durable Goods Orders for June, which brought positive news as the data recorded 1.9% increase against an expected decline of -0.4% and above the previous reading of 0.8% (revised upward from 0.7%). Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex. Aircraft was also released, this too published above expected numbers at 0.5% against 0.2% (expected) although slightly short of the revised 0.6% data released for May (revised from 0.5%). Neither sets of data had too much of an impact of the U.S. Dollar Index ® direction.
The announcement came from the Fed later in the day on 27th July; the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 75 basis points raising its benchmark rate to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%, the highest range seen since December 2018. Whilst the market viewed the rate hike at 75 basis points may happen it was still an unprecedented rate hike as it equaled the rate hike that was seen in June ( which was the largest seen since 1994). This represented the first time in modern Fed history that the Federal Reserve had raised rates by 75 basis points at two consecutive meetings.
The Fed‘s monetary policy statement and press conference confirmed the aggressive action taken by the Fed was needed to combat the effects of inflation. The Fed looked at the jobs gains and whilst this has slowed over the last three months, it still showed a robust figure and the unemployment rate had continued to remain low.
Following the interest-rate announcement and policy, details the U.S. Dollar Index ® dropped from a high of 107.24 to close at 106.30 a loss of 0.88% within the initial hour after release.
Overall, the U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the day down at 106.33 with a loss of 0.64%.
As inflation is set to play a key role in interest rate decisions throughout 2022, the ICE U.S. Dollar Information Expectation Index Family is a great tool to help plan for the future. The chart below provides the historical Index setting over the past year:
28th July early trading the U.S. Dollar Index ® continued to fall. GDP data initially discouraged the bulls from returning as the figures released were below market expectations. The annualised preliminary quarter two GDP figures showed a decline of 0.9% against expectations of a growth of 0.5% that followed a decline of 1.6% in quarter one technically it showed the U.S. economy continued to shrink for two consecutive quarters. If figures are negative for two quarters this is often considered that, the economic environment is in a recession although this is a ‘rule of thumb’ rather than an official definition.
Nonetheless, the U.S. Dollar Index ® traded lower until it reached the same pocket of support that had held the market for a number of days. The U.S. Dollar Index ® reached a low of 105.92 before the bulls returned and the market rallied from this area but ultimately the bulls could not maintain control throughout the day and U.S. Dollar Index ® closed trading at 106 .23 with a loss of 0.03%.
On the final day of July, trading the U.S. Dollar Index ® broke down below this small pocket of support and continued to drop until prices reached a low at 105.41 where fresh support was found as the market approached the lower boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands. The U.S. Dollar Index ® pulled back slightly to close the last day of trading at 105.78 with a loss of 0.27%.
The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the week with a loss of 0.59% this was the second consecutive losing week for the month.
The U.S. Dollar Index ® closed the month with a gain of 1.20% at 105.78 for a second consecutive higher monthly close. The whole month traded within the wider range of monthly resistance as the U.S. Dollar Index ® trades near highs not seen for two decades. The uptrend on the weekly chart continues as the U.S. Dollar Index ® remains trading above a 20 SMA. On a daily chart, the uptrend is vulnerable as the U.S. Dollar Index ® has dropped below the 20 SMA to trade in the lower range of the daily Bollinger Bands and has tested the lows of the upward trend line.
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
South Korean Won -
The South Korean Won closed July at 1302.95 KRW against the U.S. Dollar after trading to a high of 1329.17, the weakest the South Korean Won had traded against the U.S. Dollar since April 2009.
DAILY TREND: SIDEWAYS/UP
July trading started with the U.S. Dollar bulls reasserting their dominance following heavy losses on the last day of June trading. The USDKRW closed the day up at 1298.66 with a gain of 0.83%. To end this partial week of July trading with a gain of 0.76%
The momentum to the upside was short lived as the U.S. Dollar bears returned and the appetite for the South Korean Won increased throughout the majority of trading on 4th July. Also as it was a holiday in the U.S. to mark Independence Day. The USDKRW closed the day at 1294.72 with a loss of 0.30%
Early trading during the European session on 5th July saw the USDKRW blast through the June high as the U.S. Dollar bulls regained control. The USDKRW breached the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands that the pair had closed inside of for the past two months (with the exception of 13th June 2022) before retracing. The pair almost reached the high of the 15th July 2009 as weakness crept in. The USDKRW closed the day up at 1308.11 with a 0.63% gain,
The selling pressure continued into the 6th and 7th July as the USDKRW posted two consecutive losing days to take back the gains the U.S. Dollar made against the South Korean Won from 5th July trading. The U.S. Dollar losses were a significant gain for the South Korean Won as this is the quote currency in the pair.
It was on 7th July that the USDKRW took a small bounce as buyers stepped in at a 4-hour support area at 1295.93 – 1291.40 although the initial reaction was lackluster.
The USDKRW retested the support area during trading on 8th July where the pair dropped to a low of 1291.76 before finding support near the lows of the area combined with buyers waiting for an entry off the daily 20 SMA (midpoint of the Bollinger Bands).
The USDKRW closed the day 1294.68 with a loss of 0.20%. This was the third consecutive lower close as the South Korean Won gained back 1.03% during this time.
The USDKRW closed the first full week of July trading at 1294.68 down 0.31%.
On 11th July, the bulls returned and the demand for the U.S. Dollar was strong. The USDKRW rallied to recover all of the losses made from the prior three trading days to close at 1309.93, with a gain of 1.18%, the largest one-day gain in July.
On the 12th July, the pair broke the high of the prior trading week but soon after the bears returned and the USDKRW dropped to close the day down at 1305.21 with a loss of 0.36%.
The bearish momentum continued into the following trading day and the pair continued to drop. The bulls returned after the pair reached a 4-hour pocket of support at 1302.27 to 1299.80, propelling the USDKRW upwards although there was insufficient time in the day to recover all of the earlier losses and the pair closed at 1304.54 down 0.33%.
The bulls continued to drive prices higher the following day with demand for the U.S. Dollar high in the European and U.S. trading sessions. The pair broke through the earlier month highs and blasted through the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands (+2.0 SD) to reach a high of 1326.83 before the USDKRW pulled back. The USDKRW closed trading on 14th July at 1316.42 with a gain of 0.91%.
The bullish momentum continued into 15th July trading with the bulls driving prices higher during early trading. The USDKRW broke the high of the prior day to reach a high of 1329.17 before the bears returned. The USDKRW closed the day up at 1317.79 with a gain of 0.13%.
The USDKRW closed the week at 1317.79 with a gain of 1.78% after trading to a high of 1329.17, the highest the pair had traded since April 2009. This was a significant weakening of the South Korean Won against the U.S. Dollar.
Monday 18th July trading saw the USDKRW struggled to gain any clear direction as the pair continued to hug the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands. The pair closed the day at 1318.22 with a modest gain of 0.03%.
During 19th July trading the bears regained control and the USDKRW closed down for the day at 1305.12, a loss of 0.97%, the largest one-day loss for the USDKRW in July. This led to the largest one-day gain for the South Korean Won.
The remaining trading days of the week the USDKRW traded sideways with the bulls and the bears struggling to take overall control.
The USDKRW closed the week at 1309.79 with a loss of 0.61%.
Early trading during the week of 25th– 29th July was lackluster from a daily perspective. The pair printed two consecutive inside days for the 25th July and 26th July as it continued to trade within a sideways range. Trapped between an area of resistance at 1315.80 – 1319.34 and support at 1307.37 – 1304.33 evident on a 4-hour chart.
On 27th July, the USDKRW began to trade close to the resistance area when the bears finally returned and the USDKRW dropped and closed with a loss of 0.31% at 1305.90.
The bearish momentum continued into 28th July trading as the USDKRW broke through the pocket of support that had kept the pair within a range since 20th July. The USDKRW continued to drop and traded below the daily 20 SMA that had been acting as support since mid-June. In doing so the pair dropped through the pivot lows which had held an uptrend for most of July to eventually pause at a daily area of support refined to 1297.24 – 1292.76 towards the end of the trading day. The USDKRW closed the day at 1295.45 with a loss of 0.86%.
On the final trading day in July, the bulls returned at this support area and USDKRW rallied to close the day with a gain of 0.54% at 1302.95.
The USDKRW closed the week with a loss of 0.44%.
The uptrend continues on the weekly chart. However, after re-establishing an uptrend on the daily chart early in July, the significant pull back towards the end of July broke the lows and so the USDKRW is sideways. The USDKRW closed the month at 1302.95 with a gain of 1.20% with the South Korean Won weakening for a second consecutive month.
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Singapore Dollar -
The Singapore Dollar closed the month stronger than the prior month at $1.3796 against the U.S Dollar after gaining some ground against the prior month’s losses.
DAILY TREND: SIDEWAYS/DOWN
1st July trading the U.S. Dollar bulls were in control and the market rallied. The USDSGD breached the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands before retreating slightly to close at 1.3962 with a gain of 0.52%.
The USDSGD closed the partial week of July trading at 1.3962 with a gain of 0.66%
Monday 4th July the bears returned and the USDSGD closed at 1.3951 down 0.11%.
5th July trading the pair reversed as the bulls regained control and drove the pair higher. The USDSGD broke through and closed above the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands at 1.4055 with a gain of 0.72%.
The bears pushed back on 6th July trading and the pair dropped to a low of 1.4008 when buyers stepped in and drove the pair higher. The bears came back but did not have sufficient momentum to drive prices back to the low of the day and the USDSGD closed the day at 1.4042 down 0.07%.
The bearish momentum however continued into the following trading day and the USDSGD dropped throughout much of the day to close down with a loss of 0.31% at 1.4002.
8th July trading the bulls drove the USDSGD higher however, the demand for the U.S. Dollar was not strong enough and the bears re-established control and the pair dropped to the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands on a 4-hour chart to find support. The USDSGD closed down for a third consecutive lower close at 1.3976 with a loss of 0.21%.
The past three losing days for the USDSGD the Singapore Dollar gained strength against the U.S. Dollar, as it is the quote currency.
The USDSGD closed the first full week of July trading at 1.3976 with a gain of 0.07%.
11th July the bulls returned and the USDSGD rallied higher to reach a high of 1.4061 before pulling back as the pair tested the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands. The USDSGD closed at 1.4051 with a gain of 0.36%.
12th July the bulls drove the pair higher however, the USDSGD met with resistance at the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands and it had the previous day where the seller stepped in. The USDSGD closed the day at 1.4060 with a gain of 0.09%.
13th July the USDSGD reached a high of 1.4096 before pulling back, the highest price the pair had traded at since 1st June 2020. In other words, the weakest the Singapore Dollar had traded it against the U.S. Dollar in over two years. The USDSGD closed the day down at 1.4036 with a loss of 0.17%.
14th July trading the U.S. Dollar bears returned and strength moved into the Singapore dollar during the Asian and early European overlap. This move reversed when the USDSGD found support from the daily 20 SMA during the mid-morning European session into the U. S. session. The USDSGD rallied from there to recover some of the earlier losses. The USDSGD closed the day at 1.4025 with a loss of 0.14%.
The bears drove prices lower throughout the trading session on 15th July and the USDSGD closed the day at 1.3998 with a loss of 0.22%.
The USDSGD closed the week with a small loss of 0.02% at 1.3998.
18th July the move to the downside gained further momentum and the USDSGD closed down for a fourth consecutive day at 1.3956 with a loss of 0.34% as the Singapore Dollar continued to show strength against the U.S. Dollar.
19th July the bearish U.S. Dollar sentiment continued, to the benefit of the Singapore Dollar, as this is the quote currency. The USDSGD broke through and closed below the midpoint of the daily Bollinger Bands for the first time in almost six weeks.
The USDSGD found some strength on 20th July as the U.S. Dollar bulls returned and the pair closed up at 1.3931 with a gain of 0.11%. The first positive close for six days.
21st July trading the bears regained control after a near test of the midpoint of the daily Bollinger Bands which coincided with a small pocket of resistance on the 2-hour chart at 1.3962 – 1.3988. The USDSGD closed down at 1.3894 with a loss of 0.28%.
22nd July the USDSGD continued to fall and even though the bulls came back when the pair reached an area of support evident on a daily chart at 1.3877 – 1.3838 this was not enough to reverse the earlier losses. The USDSGD closed at 1.3876 with a loss of 0.13%.
The week ended with the USDSGD down at 1.3876 with a loss of 0.91%. It was the largest weekly drop the pair had since the end of May 2022. Which was the largest weekly gain the Singapore Dollar had made against the U.S. Dollar.
25th July, a new trading week and the bearish momentum continued and the pair traded lower into the daily area of support at 1.3877 – 1.3838 that was tested during trading the prior Friday. The area held and the USDSGD closed the day at 1.3860 with a loss of 0.27%.
26th July the U. S. Dollar had some respite as the bulls returned and the USDSGD rallied from the support area that also coincided with the lower boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands. The USDSGD closed the day positive at 1.3896 with a gain of 0.26%.
27th July the bears returned and the USDSGD dropped to close at 1.3834 with a loss of 0.42%, the largest one day loss since 8th July.
28th July the pair continued to edge lower hugging the lower boundary (-2.0 SD) of the daily Bollinger Bands. The USDSGD closed today at 1.3795 with a loss of 0.32%.
29th July the bulls returned and drove the pair higher as the USDSGD tested a weekly support area at 1.3777 – 1.3660, although the momentum behind the move was not strong enough to make a significant impact to change the overall direction on the day. The USDSGD closed at 1.3796 with a modest gain of 0.01%.
The USDSGD closed the final week of July trading with a loss of 0.73% at 1.3796.
On a daily chart, we are in a sideways phase as we await clear direction although there has been a significant move to the downside. The weekly uptrend remains. The USDSGD closed the month with a loss of 0.67% at 1.3796.
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Chinese Yuan -
The Chinese Yuan Renminbi closed July at 6.7440 CNY against the U.S. Dollar after losing 0.75% of its value during July trading for a fifth consecutive losing month.
DAILY TREND: SIDEWAYS
On 1st July, the USDCNH continued to trade within the range created by the low of 6.6670 formed on the 15th June and the high at 6.7281 formed on the 16th June with the midpoint of the daily Bollinger Bands threading through the price action. The pair had predominantly traded between this range throughout the latter two weeks of June. The high of this range had only been broken on one occasion during these two weeks when the USDCNH reached a high of 6.7340 on the 22nd of June.
Trading on 1st of July was no exception. Early trading started with a bearish tone until the market found some support at the low of the day where buyers stepped in and the pair rose slightly. The USDCNH closed the first day of trading at 6.7000 with a modest gain of 0.07%.
The USDCNH closed the partial week of June and July trading with a gain of 0.31%.
Trading on the 4th of July was very much a battle between the bulls and the bears where ultimately the pair closed with no clear direction. The USDCNH closed the day at 6.6936 with no change.
5th July trading the USDCNH remained within the range however, this time the bulls managed to recapture some ground and drove the pair higher to close at 6.7084 with a gain of 0.22%.
6th July trading was a battle of wits between the bulls and the bears, ultimately the bulls managed to push the USDCNH slightly higher for a modest gain on the day of 0.06% as the pair closed at 6.7124.
7th July the bears managed to regain control and the pair dropped heavily after just breaching the prior day high. The USDCNH closed down at 6.6906 with a loss of 0.34%.
The last day of the first full week of trading was a challenging day as neither buyers nor sellers could really retain control, the pair closed marginally up for the day at 6.6965, a small gain of 0.07%.
The USDCNH closed the first full week of July trading up with a gain of 0.05% at 6.6965. A small loss for the Yuan against the U.S. Dollar with Yuan being the quote currency.
Monday 11th of July, the bulls finally showed their dominance as the market rallied to close the day up 0.58% at 6.7216, breaking above the daily 20 SMA.
The bullish sentiment continued into the following day as the USDCNH broke above the range it had been trading within for the past three weeks. However, resistance was found as the pair reached a high of 6.7531 where the bears waited within a pocket of resistance refined to 6.7406 - 6.7604 on a 4-hour chart and the pair pulled back.
Nonetheless, the day closed with the USDCNH above the range and the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands, the first time that the pair closed outside the bands since April 2022.The USDCNH closed at 6.7349 with a gain of 0.17%.
13th July the bearish momentum continued and the pair dropped. The USDCNH closed with a loss of 0.14% at 6.7252.
The bulls came back in force during trading on 14th July and the USDCNH rallied and whilst it reached some resistance at the high of 6.7915, the pair ended the day with a gain of 0.55% at 6.7616.
Trading on 15th July saw both the bulls and the bears failing to retain any significant ground. The bulls drove the pair higher until it reached a small pocket of resistance on a 1-hour chart 6.7778 – 6.7915 and after reaching a high of 6.7843, the pair dropped. The USDCNH closed at 6.7651 with a gain of 0.03%.
The week ended with the USDCNH gaining 1.23% to close at 6.7651. This was the largest weekly gain the U.S. Dollar had made against the Yuan since April 2022.
18th July trading saw another day where the bulls and bears struggled to gain overall control. The USDCNH closed up at 6.7583 with a gain of 0.07%.
19th July the bears returned with more vigor and the USDCNH dropped to close down at 6.7434 with a loss of 0.22%.
20th July trading the USDCNH appeared to find some support as the pair reached the low set on the 18th July. The pair rallied from a low of 6.7373 to close the day with a gain of 0.42% at 6.7725.
This bullish momentum was short lived as fortunes reversed on the 21st July. The USDCNH re-visited the 1-hour resistance area at 6.7778 - 6.7915 where the sellers were waiting. The pair traded lower to close the day with a loss of 0.08% at 6.7699.
22nd July trading saw a quick retest back into this resistance area before the USDCNH dropped to close the day at 6.7542 with a loss of 0.19%.
The USDCNH closed the week at 6.7542, with a gain of 0.01%.
The bearish momentum continued into the final week of trading where the USDCNH closed trading on 25th July with a loss of 0.12% at 6.7489. This was the third consecutive day of losses.
The bulls returned on 26th July and drove prices higher. The USDCNH closed the day with a gain of 0.21% at 6.7634.
On 27th July, this bullish momentum was not enough to reach or break above the small pocket of resistance that had been tested on multiple occasions and again the pair dropped to close the day down at 6.7420 with a loss of 0.33%.
28th July the USDCNH found some support as price dropped and met the daily 20 SMA where buyers were waiting and the pair took a bounce. The USDCNH closed the day at 6.7432 with a gain of 0.03%.
The final day of trading on 29th July neither the bulls nor bears could retain their dominance and the market closed at 6.7440 with a small loss of 0.02%
The final week of July trading the USDCNH closed with a loss of 0.19% at 6.7440. This was the first losing week for the pair, giving the Yuan strength as the quote currency.
USDCNH continues to trade sideways within the daily timeframe although the pair remains in an uptrend on a weekly chart. The USDCNH closed the month of July at 6.7440, with a gain of 0.75%.
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Asia Tech -
After price set a new low mid-July at 3,207.10, the ICE Asia Tech 30 Index (ATI) essentially traded in a range between 3,200 and 3,400. While many of the major equity indices like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite saw higher prices during the month, the ATI essentially was held back by the Chinese component stocks.
DAILY TREND: DOWN
ATI created a new low at $3,207 in July as price continued the June trend lower. Price recovered or corrected modestly in the second half of July and held below $3,400.
Chinese technology stocks weighed down ATI as major equity indices all corrected higher in both the United States and the rest of Asia.
ATI closed the month at $3,316 flat with a -0.9% change.
Index Composition: 37% China, 23% Japan, 23% Taiwan and 17% South Korea
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Oil -
Brent crude oil saw a price spike down almost to $91.00 on 12th July, a level which had not been seen since March. Price followed higher and has since maintained a price range between $98 and $104 and settled to close the month at $103.97 or 1.9% lower than June.
DAILY TREND: SIDEWAYS
Brent broke the June low around $102 in the early part of July and followed through with lower prices which managed to spike down to $91 on 14th July.
Brent subsequently traded higher but remained under $104 with an upward price spike to reach $106 on 29th July.
Brent closed the month at $103.97 with a -1.9% change.
UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS
Key Figures -
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TRADDICTIV · Research Team
