Bitcoin –

Bitcoin peaked at $52,803 in early September and set a lower high from the July intra monthly low of $29,337 on 20th July. Price retraced 50% to around $41,000 and would set a higher low if the September high is exceeded.

DAILY TREND: UP

Source: ICE Connect

Bitcoin reached $52,803 in early September ending a strong August move in price to set a lower high and had since retraced 50% of that move to hold above $40,000.

UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS


US Dollar –

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) closed +1.7% in September at 94.23, after a slightly shaky start to the month. During the last week of September the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) broke through a previous resistance area created during November 2020 with conviction before pulling back slightly leaving a fresh ten-month high at 94.52.

DAILY TREND: UP

Source: ICE Connect

After a slightly nervous start to the month exacerbated by worse than expected Nonfarm payrolls data the DXY fell to test an area of support at 91.78 – 92.15, which held, sending the market rallying.

The rally continued throughout the month helped by positive data. The DXY broke through a resistance area at 93.50 – 93.75 from August 2021, this was formed based on a reaction to an area of resistance shown on a monthly chart between 93.75 – 94.80.

The DXY ended the month positive leaving a new ten-month high at 94.52 as it pulled back slightly on the last trading day for September.

The DXY closed at 94.24 with a +1.7% change.

UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS


Singapore Dollar –

The Singapore Dollar closed the month at $1.3570 against the U.S. Dollar driven mainly by the strengthening of the U.S. Dollar throughout the majority of September.

DAILY TREND: NEUTRAL

Source: ICE Connect

USDSGD early September continued the downward momentum before finding a support area at 1.3397 – 1.3428 where it took a bounce, retested and broke slightly lower (1.3380) before reversing.

The turning point on the USDSGD occurred on 10th September 2021. This was mainly due to the strengthening of the DXY (U.S. Dollar against a basket of currencies). As the U.S. Dollar is the Base in the pair this meant the Singapore Dollar began to lose value against the U.S. Dollar as the pair rallied.

USDSGD continued to rally eventually breaking above the downward channel the pair had been trading in for the past two-months (evident on the daily chart), cancelling out the short-term downtrend.

The USDSGD reached a resistance area on a daily chart at 1.3615 – 1.3656 (from August) and the pair began to pull back on the final trading day of the month.

The USDSGD closed at 1.3570 with a +0.9% change.

UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS


Chinese Yuan –

The Chinese Yuan Renminbi closed the month at $6.4492 against the U.S. Dollar. The USDCNH finally broke below its prior trading range 6.4500 – 6.5100 it had been in, creating a slightly lower range at 6.4233 – 6.4880.

DAILY TREND: DOWN – NEUTRAL

Source: ICE Connect

Early September the USDCNH broke down below the trading range of 6.4500 – 6.5100 the pair had been trading within since mid-June, signifying the Yuan (Quote currency in the pairing) was gaining strength against the U.S. Dollar (Base). This created a new ten week low for the pair on 3rd September at 6.4234 meaning the strongest the Yuan had been trading at during this time.

Even when CPI and Retail Sales data came in below expectations, it did not seem to have much of an impact on the pair at the time of release.

The pair finally rallied from the lows mainly due to positive news from the U.S. and concerns mounting in China over Evergrande, one of China’s biggest developers before setting a month high of 6.4880. This high on the pairing signified a new one-month low against the dollar for the Yuan. A new range has now been established 6.4233 – 6.4880.

Overall little change for the month with the USDCNH closing at 6.4492 down by -0.1%.

UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS


Asia Tech –

Technology stocks in Asia came under renewed pressure in September as the Chinese government regulators indicated increased scrutiny on internet stocks and amidst calls to accelerate national legislation to ensure fair competition and innovation in the digital economy.

DAILY TREND: DOWN

Source: ICE Connect

Price retraced in September to the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level erasing a good part of the late August move higher. China’s regulators and state media continued to focus on more regulations on internet related businesses than already announced.

UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS


Oil –

Brent crude oil broke the July to August downtrend and traded higher to a new high at $79.95 to end the month 9.3% higher versus August at $78.31.

DAILY TREND: UP

Source: ICE Connect

Brent price reached a new high of $79.95 on 28th September. Brent turned positively correlated to the U.S. Dollar during this period.

UPCOMING HIGH IMPACT EVENTS


Key Figures –

Source: ICE Connect, ~30 Days


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TRADDICTIV · Research Team